摘要
采用两步法,针对云南东川蒋家沟流域的降雨量与土壤饱和度,建立了边缘为皮尔逊Ⅲ型的Clayton Copula模型,分析了降雨量和土壤饱和度之间相关结构,以及两变量重现期,模拟了流域内土壤饱和度的变化情况。实例表明所构造的Clayton Copula模型能比较好地模拟出流域内土壤饱和度在降雨情况下逐日变化情况,有助于进一步认识降水对土壤饱和度的作用过程,并为分析泥石流灾害的发生提供了一种新思路。
Considering precipitation and soil saturation of Jiangjiagou valley in Dongchuan of Yunnan Province,a Clayton Copula model with Pearson type Ⅲ marginal distribution is established by two-step method. The related structure and recurrence interval of precipitation and soil saturation are analyzed,and changes of soil saturation are simulated. Practical examples verify that the Clayton Copula model can better simulate daily changes of soil saturation in precipitation situations,can help people further understand the action process of rainfalls to soil saturation,and provide a new method of analysis on the occurrence of debris flow disasters.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2010年第3期20-23,52,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室开放基金研究项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(SWJTU09CX075)
