摘要
贷款减值理论基础可以从资产内涵、会计目标、稳健主义和风险量化管理理论四个维度来分析。贷款减值不仅是一项会计实践,也事关金融监管与稳定。现行已发生损失减值模型同现代企业估值模型具有内在一致性,但减值确认存在滞后性。预期损失模型旨在前瞻性确认贷款预期损失,消除亲周期性影响。研究表明:预期损失模型对预期改变非常敏感,也无法彻底解决现行模型的亲周期问题;中国目前的信贷商业环境尚不支持预期损失模型的理论构建基础。预期损失模型仍未覆盖贷款利率风险的隐性损失,未来预期会被以公允价值为基础的贷款定价模型所取代。
The theoretical basis of loan impairment can be analyzed from four dimensions： asset definition, accounting objective, prudent principle and quantitative risk management theory. Loan impairment is not only an accounting practice, but also related to financial supervision and stability. The existing The Incurred Loss hnpairment Model is internally consistent with modem business pricing model, but the affirmation of impairment lags. The aim of the Expected Loss Approach （ELA） is to confirm the expected loss of loan proactively and eliminate pro-cyclical impact. The results show that ELA is very sensitive to expected changes and it can not completely solve the pro-cyclical problem of current models. In China, current business environment does not yet support to build the theoretical basis of ELA. The ELA does not cover the implicit loss of interest rate risk and, in the future, it will be expectedly replaced by the loan pricing model based on the fair value.
出处
《金融论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第8期47-55,共9页
Finance Forum
