摘要
基于演化系统方程,导出相应的观测方程,运用单位根检验和协整分析模型,证实中国电力系统长期演化具有漂移性,演化机制中两条反馈回路产生两种均衡关系:电能供需均衡和电力资源供需均衡.演化的漂移性可产生巨大的经济成本,加大了系统规划的误差风险.电能供需均衡是下游产业的非平稳性向上传导漂移性的通道,电力资源均衡高度依赖煤炭资源,电力资源供需失衡的风险将使系统面临非平稳性叠加冲击.
Equations system has been built for the evolution in the long term,and observation equations have been deduced.The unit root tests and co-integration models has demonstrate that evolution of China electricity system in long run is drifting and the two feedback loops produced two kinds of equilibriums： equilibriums between demand and supply of electricity energy and of resources producing electricity energy. Drifting products huge economic costs and enlarges error risks of system projects.The first equilibrium is the path through which non-stationary from downstream is conducted to upstream,meanwhile,the other one is promoted by dependency on coal resources.Risk of disequilibrium between demands and supply of resources will produce non-stationary so that to China electricity system will be impacted by two kind of non-stationary.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第8期1521-1529,共9页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(70671042)
北京哲学社会科学规划重点项目(07AfJG170)
关键词
电力系统
长期演化
平稳性
均衡关系
electricity system
evolution in long run
stationary
equilibrium relationships
