摘要
近年来,金融顺周期的问题日益受到理论界的关注。本文对金融顺周期理论进行了回顾和梳理,在前人研究成果的基础上,以信贷周期和货币周期为例,通过数据分析和模型估计,研究了改革开放以来中国金融周期和经济周期的关系。研究结果表明,中国的金融系统存在着顺周期效应,金融的顺周期性效应在20世纪90年代以后逐渐显著,经济的波动与金融周期之间存在着较强的格兰杰因果关系,并在短期内影响明显。因此,我们必须加深对金融顺周期的理解,提高金融监管水平,掌握其内在的规律,更好地为经济的稳定、有序和健康发展服务。
Financial procyclicality has attracted much more research attention recently. This paper reviews the theories of financial procyclicality firstly. Based on previous researches and taking credit cycle and monetary cycle for example, this paper focuses on relations between financial cycle and economic cycle of China from 1978 through data analysis and model estimation. The results of model show that there is a financial procyclieality effect in Chinese financial system, and this effect manifests in the 1990s gradually. Moreover, a strong Granger causality exists between the economic fluctuations and the financial procyclicality, especially in short terms. As a result, we must deepen our understanding and grasp the inherent law of financial procyclical, and improve financial supervision, to service economic development better.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第8期120-128,共9页
Journal of International Trade
基金
中国人民大学"985"工程"中国经济研究哲学社会科学创新基地"的支持
