摘要
货币稳定是一个伴随着货币交易范围扩展而不断拓展的概念,资产交易规模使资产价格波动能严重影响货币稳定和社会福利,因此,货币稳定应当包括资产价格稳定。利用中国1998-2009年月度、季度数据,以及协整检验、误差修正估计和方差分析等方法研究后得出:资产价格与传统通货膨胀指标现值及预期值存在联动性、与经济运行中的货币存量具有显著的数量解释关系,资产价格通过影响消费、投资等经济因素冲击着货币政策效果;货币政策对维护包括资产价格在内的货币稳定并非无能为力,经验表明资产价格往往对货币政策调整做出积极反应。因此,货币稳定指标应根据传统通货膨胀指标和资产价格指标综合计算,即货币政策应根据资产价格传导机制,精确分析资产价格与货币中介目标的关系,准确采取政策工具。
Currency stability is a concept developing constantly wit h the expansion of the extension of the monetary transaction.The scale of the asset transaction can make asset price volatility seriously affect the monetary stability and social welfare;therefore,monetary stability should include asset price stability.By making use of the quarterly and monthly data of China from 1998 to 2009,and through such methods as cointegration,estimated error correction and variance analysis,this study finds out that there is a linkage between the asset prices and the present value and expected value of the traditional indicators of inflation,as well as a significant relationship of quantity explanation between it and the monetary stock in economic operation;asset prices are influencing the effects of monetary policy through economic factors affecting consumption,investment and so on.It is not the case that monetary policy has nothing to do with maintaining the currency stability,including asset prices.Experiences prove that asset prices usually make positive response towards the adjustment of monetary policy.Therefore,monetary stability index should be based on the traditional indicators of inflation and asset prices comprehensively,i.e.the making of monetary policy should,in accordance with the transmission mechanism of asset prices,analyzes accurately the relationship between asset prices and monetary intermediate goals,so as to adopt the policy tools accurately.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第7期51-62,共12页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
关键词
资产价格
货币稳定
货币政策
asset prices
monetary stability
monetary policy
