摘要
本文以中国商业银行股权估值为研究对象,分析一般企业4种经典股权估值理论和方法,从商业银行经营特性和制度性特征出发,结合中国商业银行最近几年股利政策的变化趋势,研究4种经典估值方法对商业银行股权估值的适用性。研究发现,股利折现法(DDM)是最适宜中国商业银行股权估值的方法,同时应辅以P/B、P/E验证。向国内、国际著名投资银行和机构投资者的分析师、投资者发放近70份调查问卷的结果支持了本文的结论。应加强对机构投资者和散户的培训和教育,使基金经理们逐步从简单使用P/E、P/B估值方法转变到DDM结合P/E、P/B的运用。
This paper studies the equity valuation of Chinese commercial banks. The four classic theories and methods for enterprises equity valuation are analyzed. Based on the commercial bank＇s operational and institutional characteristics and the trend of commercial bank＇s dividend policy in recent years, paper analyses the applicability of the four classic equity valuation methods for commercial banks. The study finds that the Dividend Discount Model （DDM）, supplemented by P/B, P/E verification, is the most appropriate equity valuation method for Chinese commercial banks. The results of seven- ty questionnaires, to analysts and investors of domestic and international well-known investment banks and investment institutes, support the findings. The training and education of institutional and retail investors should be strengthened and so the fund managers will gradually change from the simple use of valuation method P/E, P/B to the use of DDM combined with P/E, P/B.
出处
《金融论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第7期11-19,共9页
Finance Forum
关键词
经典股权估值理论
商业银行特性
股利折现法
classic equity valuation theory
commercial bank＇s characteristics
Dividend Discount Model（DDM）
