摘要
根据江苏沿海地区1999—2008年物流需求数据,运用灰色系统理论,探讨并选择了最优灰色GM(1,1)模型对江苏沿海地区未来5年的物流需求进行灰色预测。结果表明,在建立的灰色GM(1,1)模型群中,6维灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度最高,未来5年内江苏沿海地区物流需求仍会有大幅度增长,因此要提升物流服务水平,为区域经济发展贡献力量。
Based on the statistics of the logistics requirements from 1999 to 2008 in the coastal region of Jiangsu province,the paper applies the grey systematic theory to predicts the logistics requirements for the future 5 years in the region by exploring and choosing the best grey GM（1,1） model.The result indicates that among the grey GM model groups,the six-dimensional GM（1,1） model is the most accurate,and the logistics requirements for the future 5 years in the region will increase greatly.Therefore,logistics service level ought to be improved so as to make contributions to the regional economic development.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2010年第7期19-20,共2页
East China Economic Management
基金
中国物流学会2009年"物流产业对江苏沿海经济增长贡献的实证研究"(2009CSLKT068)
关键词
江苏沿海
物流需求
灰色预测
coastal region of Jiangsu province
logistics requirements
grey prediction
