摘要
研究南疆铁路沿线五地州的近18a以来的城镇化进程及其发展变化情况。从城市化水平分析了五地州的城镇发展状况;同时,详细查阅南疆铁路沿线五地州1990-2007年的统计数据,选取适合该地区的综合城市化水平测量指标后,利用SPSS统计学软件,采用回归分析方法,建立了非农业人口及总人口随年份变化的回归方程,陈述了该地区城镇化发展特征,分析了该地区城镇化发展的限制因素;在对总人口及非农业人口的变化进行预测的基础上对南疆铁路沿线地区将来20a的城镇化发展进行拟预测和分析,最后拟提出加快该地区社会经济发展而促进城镇化快速、持续、全面发展的建议。
The urbanization progress and changes of five prefecture and autonomous prefecture along south Xinjiang railroad were studied in this article in last 18 years.The urban developmental situation of five prefecture and autonomous prefecture was analysed from the point of urbanization level;Meantime,the five prefecture and autonomous prefectures sitatistical data among the 1990-2007 was looked up carefully,up to this,the prefer items for estimating universal urbanization level in this area were selected,by the statistical softwear SPSS and methed of the multiple regression analysis,the regression formula of population and non-agrecultural population was established,and the present situation and limiting factore of urbanization was discribed;after all,based on the change of population and non-agrecultural population,the urbanization level of future 20 years was estimated and analysed,trying to estimate and give some useful advises about how to improve the social economy and urbanization rapidly,sustainable and allsitable in this region.
出处
《安徽农学通报》
2010年第12期20-23,60,共5页
Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin
关键词
南疆铁路
城镇化
预测
South Xinjiang Railroad
Urbanization
Estimate
