摘要
目的 评价国家监测点在疟疾发病监测中的作用. 方法 分别以全国,监测点所在省（自治区、直辖市）和县（市、区）以及三类不同地区监测点所在省（自治区、直辖市）和县（市、区）2005-2008年的疟疾发病年报数据为参考序列（X0）,相应的监测点疟疾发病网络直报数据（X1）和监测点监测数据（X2）为比较序列,应用灰色关联分析方法,计算参考序列与比较序列间的灰色关联度（γOi）,并排列灰关联序. 结果 分别以全国以及监测点所在省（自治区、直辖市）和县（市、区）的疟疾发病年报数据为参考序列时,灰关联序为γ01（0.6112）〈γ02（0.7329）、γ01（0.6091）〈γ02（0.7304）和γ01（0.6523）〈γ02（0.7990）;在三类地区分别以监测点所在省（自治区、直辖市）和县（市、区）的疟疾发病年报数据为参考序列时,疟疾发病率较高地区的灰关联序为γ01（0.6163）〈γ02（0.7518）和γ01（0.6766）〈γ02（0.8267）,疟疾发病不稳定地区的灰关联序为γ01（0.6563）〉γ02（0.6495）和γ01（0.5986）〈γ02（0.6074）,疟疾发病率较低地区的灰关联序为γ01（0.6282）〉γ02（0.6190）和γ01（0.5979）〉γ02（0.5705）.结论 总体上,监测点监测数据序列与参考序列的动态关系更接近,国家监测点监测能较好地反映疟疾年发病趋势.
Objective To evaluate the role of national sentinel surveillance on malaria trend. Methods The number （X0） of malaria cases of the surveillance provinces, counties, the whole country, and the surveillance provinces and counties broken down by 3 different areas,from annual reports in 2005-2008, were determined as the reference sequences and those of national sentinel sites from the web-based reporting system （ X1） and sentinel surveillance database （X2 ） as the comparative sequences accordingly, then the grey relational grades （ γOi） were calculated and sorted. Results Taking the number of malaria cases from annual reports of the whole country, the surveillance provinces and counties as reference sequences, the grey relational grades were γ01 （0.6112） 〈γ02（0.7329） ,γ01 （0.6091） 〈γ02（0.7304） and γ01（0.6523） 〈γ02（0.7990） respectively. Taking the number of malaria cases from annual reports of the surveillance provinces and counties by different areas as reference sequences, the grey relational grades in hyper-endemic areas were γ01 （0. 6163） 〈 γ02 （0.7518） and γ01 （0.6766） 〈γ02（0. 8267） respectively. While they were γ01 （0. 6563） 〉γ02 （0. 6495） and γ01（0.5986） 〈 γ02（0.6074） respectively in unstable-endemic areas, γ01 （0.6282） 〉 γ02（0. 6190） and γ01 （0.5979） 〉γ02（0.5705） respectively in sporadic-endemic areas. Conclusion In general, the comparative sequences of national sentinel surveillance data were closer to the reference sequences, and the national sentinel surveillance could better reflect the malaria trend.
出处
《国际医学寄生虫病杂志》
CAS
2010年第3期156-159,共4页
International JOurnal of Medical Parasitic Diseases
关键词
疟疾
监测点监测
评价
灰色关联分析
Malaria
Sentinel surveillance
Evaluation
Grey relational analysis
