摘要
利用季节指数预测理论,建立矿业系统安全事故预测模型,预测事故死亡人数,并对预测结果的拟合度和趋势变化做出相应的解析。研究结果表明,季节指数周期预测模型,既能解决事故指标序列不规则性周期波动,又能很好地预测其发展趋势,对矿业安全管理决策和事故预防具有重大意义。
The seasonal index forecast theory is applied to set up accident forecast model of mining system and forecast the death toll and also the degree of fitting and the trend of changes are relatively analyzed. The results show that the seasonal index prediction model which can not only resolve the problem about the irregular length of the period in the series of incident indicator, but also forecast the trend well. It is of great significance to make a decision and prevent safty accidents in the management of mining.
出处
《工业安全与环保》
北大核心
2010年第6期40-41,43,共3页
Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection
关键词
安全事故
矿业系统
季节指数预测
周期性
safety accidents mining system seasonal index forecast periodicity
