摘要
近年来,随着气候模式研究的快速发展,全球气候模式在模拟20世纪气候和气候变化特征,尤其是在模拟温度、降水等要素特征和变化及其人类活动对这些要素的影响等方面取得了丰硕的成果。然而,全球气候模式对近地层风速的模拟情况如何,目前仍缺少分析和检验。本文利用中国区域近地层风速观测资料,检验评估了参与IPCC AR4"20世纪气候耦合模式模拟"(20C3M)的19个全球气候模式和国家气候中心新一代全球气候模式(BCC_CSM1.0.1)模拟的1956—1999年中国近地层(10 m)风速及其变化的模拟能力。研究发现,20个全球气候模式基本上都能模拟出中国多年年(或季)平均风速分布状况,但模式模拟的平均风速一般小于观测值,尤以观测风速较大的北部和西北部地区模拟值偏小显著。气候模式模拟秋冬季风速分布的能力强于模拟夏春季的能力。模式基本上能模拟出冬、春季平均风速大于夏、秋季平均风速,但是模拟不出春、冬、夏、秋季平均风速依次减小的季节变化特征。模式及模式集成难以模拟出观测到的近50年中国年(或季)平均风速明显减小的变化趋势,少数模式能模拟出年(或季)平均风速略呈减小的变化趋势,但与观测值比相差约一个量级。模式对北部和西南部地区平均风速的变化模拟效果较好,而模式难以模拟东南-南部地区风速变化特征。
In recent years,with the rapid development of climate model studies,the global climate models have made fruitful results in simulated 20th century climate and climate change,especially in simulated temperature,precipitation and other elements and human activities on the impact of these factors.However,there are less relevant researches on simulated or tested surface layer wind speed.The wind speeds change over China from 1956 to 1999 were evaluated,which has been simulated by twenty global climate models with both anthropogenic and natural forcing（named 20C3M）.Nineteen models of those models were provided by IPCC fourth assessment report,another one（BCC- CSM1.0.1） was contributed by National Climate Center that has been studied for IPCC fifth assessment report.The studies find that the models have the certain capabilities to simulate the patterns of the annual or seasonal mean wind speeds in China,to compare with the observation.But the simulated wind speeds are less than observations generally,especially in the northern and north-western regions where simulated wind speed is significantly smaller and observed mean wind speed is larger than that of other regions.The simulated wind speeds for winter and spring are bigger than that of summer and fall.It is the same as the observations.However,these models can not simulate the seasonal variable features of the wind speeds reasonably that is the decreasing characters in turn spring,winter,summer and fall.Both these models and model ensembles can not simulate the obviously decreased trend.Only a few of them simulate the slightly decrease trend of annual（or seasonal） wind speed changes in China for the last 50 years.With regard to regions in China,the simulated results of the northern and southwest regions are better than that of the southeast-south region.
出处
《气象学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第6期923-934,共12页
Acta Meteorologica Sinica
基金
国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY 200806009)
国家发改委和财政部之"风能详查和评价工作"和欧盟-中国能源和环境项目(Europe Aid/123310/D/SER/CN)
关键词
全球气候模式
风速
检验
模拟
Global Climate Model
Wind Speed
Evaluation
Simulation
