摘要
根据新疆塔克拉玛干沙漠周边12个气象台站1961—2007年的历史气候资料,采用线性回归、Morlet小波、Mann-Kendall突变检测和自然正交分解(EOF)等方法,对近47a的年平均气温、降水量、潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度等气候要素的基本变化特征进行了分析,结果表明:①年平均气温呈升高趋势,降水量呈增多趋势,年潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度总体呈减小趋势。受其综合影响,气候总体呈较明显的暖湿化趋势。但20世纪90年代初、中期以来,在气温持续上升的同时,潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度呈增大之势,即气候出现了"暖干化"的迹象,该现象值得关注。②突变检测表明,年平均气温在1970年发生了突变性的升高,降水量在1981年发生了突变性的增多,而潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度在1981年发生了突变性的减小。③气温、降水、潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度分别存在准3a、8a的年际尺度和16～23a的年代际尺度的周期性变化。④12站的年平均气温、降水量、潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度等4要素的最主要空间分布特征均是同向变化。
Based on the climatological data observed by 12 meteorological stations in the area around Taklimakan desert during 1961 2007,the fundamental change characteristic of key climate elements such as temperatures,amount of precipitation,Potential evapotranspiration and aridity index were analyzed by using linear regression,Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall abrupt test and EOF.The main results obtained are as follows：（1） The annual mean temperature,precipitation are in an increasing trend,but the annual potential evapotranspiration and aridity index are in an decreasing trend.Generally,the climate is in the obvious warm and wet change tendency in the area around Taklimakan desert in this 47-year period.However,there is a ＂warming and dry＂ signs that is worthy paying attention to since the early or mid-term of 1990s,when the temperature continued to rise,the potential evapotranspiration and aridity appeared increasing trend.（2） The abrupt examination indicated that the annual mean temperature dramatically ascend in 1970,precipitation fast increased in 1981,but the annual potential evapotranspiration and aridity index abruptly reduced in 1981.（3） Temperature,precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and aridity index evolved with quasi-3-year,8-year and 16 to 23-year periods,respectively.（4） The most spatial distribution characteristics are similar among that of temperature,precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and aridity index in the area around Taklimakan desert in these 47 years.
出处
《中国沙漠》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第2期413-421,共9页
Journal of Desert Research
基金
新疆气象科研项目(200708)资助
