摘要
在借鉴前人研究成果基础上,文章提出了衡量外贸增长方式的一个评价体系,采用量化指标、结构指标、效益指标和可持续发展指标对外贸增长方式进行了多维度的刻画,并采用主成分分析方法构建了一个综合指标来对外贸增长方式进行度量。在此基础上,运用时间序列的计量分析工具分析了工资、资本、利率、劳动和汇率对广东省外贸增长方式的影响,为制定政策措施提供理论支持。研究发现,从1990年到2008年期间,广东外贸增长方式在不断朝着集约型方向发展,而影响外贸增长方式的因素往往是复杂的和综合的,单一宏观经济变量对外贸增长方式都没有显著的线性影响。
This paper focuses on the discussion of the transformation of foreign trade growth mode in Guangdong Province. By adopting quantitative indices, structural indices, beneficial indices and sustainable indices, it proposes a multi-dimensional understanding of the growth mode. It also constructs a synthetical index to measure the growth mode. The result shows that there has been a consistent transition from extensive style to intensive style between 1990 and 2008. Then it analyzes the possible factors that may affect the growth mode, wage, capital, interest rate, labor and exchange rate. Based on the unit root test, co-integration test, VECM mode and Granger causality test, it finds that the influencing factors for the growth mode are complicated and comprehensive, and that the single macroeconomic variable has no clear causality relationship with the growth mode.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第5期31-36,共6页
International Economics and Trade Research
关键词
广东
外贸增长方式
评价
影响因素
Guangdong
foreign trade growth mode
evaluation system
influencing factor
