摘要
基于1961年以来发生的厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件和山东省气候资料,分析了1961年来山东省气候变化特点,并对降水量、气温、干旱灾害事件与厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件之间的关系进行统计分析,初步揭示了厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对山东省气候的影响.结果表明:1961年以来山东省气温呈现明显波动增高趋势,年降水量呈现明显波动减少变化趋势,但是波动程度有差别;厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对山东省气温、降水和干旱灾害影响显著,厄尔尼诺年降水减少,降水量低于正常年降水量87.11mm,发生干旱灾害的可能性较大,一般给山东省工农业生产带来不利影响;拉尼娜年降水增多,高于正常年降水量53.37mm,气温仅比正常年份平均气温低0.1℃,发生干旱灾害事件的可能性减少,通常给山东省工农业生产带来正面影响.
Based on statistics of El Nino/La Nina events and the climate data recorded in historical documents since 1961,the characteristics of climate change since 1961 in Shandong province were analyzed. Through analysis on the relation between annual precipitation,annual temperature,draught disaster and El Nino/La Nina events,the influences of El Nino/La Nina events on the climate of Shandong province were indicated. The results showed that the annual temperature of Shandong province was increasing,but the annual precipitation was decreasing and it＇s degree was different since 1961. El Nino/La Nina events had distinct influence on annual precipitation,annual temperature and draught disaster of Shandong province,the annual precipitation decreased by 87.11 mm than that in normal years and the probability of draught disaster increased in the year that the El Nino event happened,which had negative effect on the industrial and agricultural production of Shandong province. But in La Nina years the annual precipitation increased by 53.37 mm,the annual temperature decreased by 0.1℃ than that in normal years and the probability of draught disaster decreased,which had positive influence on the industrial and agricultural production of Shandong province.
出处
《陕西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期80-84,共5页
Journal of Shaanxi Normal University：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40571004)
关键词
厄尔尼诺
拉尼娜
气候变化
灾害事件
El Nino event
La Nina event
climate change
disaster event
