摘要
近年来,特别是2007年次贷危机引发全球经济危机以来,在以虚拟经济大发展为表征的新经济背景下,全球金融市场尤其是股票市场的剧烈波动与新经济周期特征出现悖离。文章以股票指数波动率作为宏观经济量化指标反映经济波动新的变化,从经济结构化的角度探索股票指数高波动对新经济悖离的原因,并提出了虚拟经济和实体经济之间应该建立阈限机制,避免高杠杆倍数导致衍生品交易失控所积累的系统性风险。
In recently years, especially since the global financial crisis, in the context of the new economy that is characterized as the virtual economic development, Global financial markets, particularly stock market volatility deviate from the features of new economic cycle. The paper takes stock index volatility as quantitative indicators of macroeconomic fluctuations to reflect the new changes in the economy and further explore the reason from the perspective of the economic structure. And also the authors suggests that threshold mechanism should be build between virtual economy and real economy in order to avoid systemic risks accumulated from uncontrolled derivatives trade caused by high leveraged multiple.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第3期144-154,共11页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
新经济
经济周期
虚拟经济
股票指数
波动率
new economy, economic cycle, virtual economy, stock index, volatility
