摘要
利用奇异值分解、合成分析和变点检测等统计方法,集中分析了北极臭氧损耗对东亚中高纬度地区初春地面气温的影响。结果表明:(1)受北极臭氧损耗影响而气温变化显著的区域为东亚中高纬度地区,与臭氧损耗关系最密切的地面气温空间模态是以贝加尔湖西北为中心的暖异常。(2)北极臭氧损耗对地面气温的影响不仅仅体现在空间上,还体现在时间上。除了贝加尔湖西北—东西伯利亚大片区域外,我国华北和西北也存在显著的负异常提前进入暖季。(3)臭氧损耗对关键区域的气温突变点影响的幅度很大,约在3～5天,这对复杂的3月气温短期预测起到重要的参考意义。
Using the TOMS satellites data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,we studied the influence of the Arctic ozone depletion on surface air temperature（SAT） in the middle-high latitude East-Asia regions during spring time.The results show that（1） the target region impacted by ozone depletion is located in the middle-high latitude of East-Asia;（2） the influence of ozone depletion on the SAT in the middle-high latitude East-Asia region during spring time is not only in the spatial region but also in the temporal scale;（3） the change-point of SAT over the key region can be taken as an indicator to predict in the spring time.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第2期412-419,共8页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(40533016)资助
关键词
臭氧损耗
地面气温
奇异值分解
合成分析
变点检测
Arctic ozone depletion
Surface air temperature
Singular vector decomposition
Composite analysis
Change-point test
