摘要
进行耕地质量预警分析,提前反映耕地质量变化趋势,对提高耕地质量和保护粮食安全具有重要意义。本文从生态经济系统的角度出发,以人地关系、耕地利用投入水平、生态环境背景和耕地效果及投资潜力四个方面为主要因素,构建佳木斯市耕地质量预警分析模型,运用回归分析法和指数和法对2008年—2020年的耕地质量进行预测预警。结果表明,随着时间序列的延伸,指标值总体上呈上升趋势,其中,2008年—2010年、2013年—2014年,佳木斯市耕地质量处于中警状态;2011年—2012年,耕地质量处于重警状态;2015年—2016年,耕地质量处于轻警状态;2017年—2020年,耕地质量处于无警状态。最后,从控制人口数量、盘活存量土地、改造中低产田、治理农田污染、加大农业投入和建立耕地质量动态监测体系等方面提出针对性措施。
It is important to make early warning analysis of cultivated land quality and reflect the cultivated land quality ahead of trends for improving cultivated land quality and the protection of food security. From the point of eco - economic system, with man - land relationship,input level of cultivated land use, eco - environ- mental background, input level of effect and the investment potential as the main factors, the writer constructs the early warning analysis model of Jiamusi and use regression analysis and index methods to predict the cultivated land quality from 2008 to 2020. With the extension of time series, the result indicates that the indicator values show upward trend＇ Among them, from 2008 to 2010, from 2013 to 2014 , Jiamusi city＇s cultivated land quality is at the condition of medium degree warning. From 2011 to 2012 , the cultivated land quality is at the condition of heavy degree warning. From 2015 to 2016, the cultivated land quality is at the condition of light degree warning. From 2017 to 2020 ,the cultivated land quality is at the condition of non- degree warning.
出处
《东北农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2010年第2期6-10,共5页
Journal of Northeast Agricultural University:Social Science Edition
基金
国家科技支撑项目(2008BAD96B02)
黑龙江省教育厅青年骨干教师研究项目(1154G45)
关键词
生态经济系统
耕地质量
预警
佳木斯市
eco - economy system, cultivated land quality, early - warning, Jiamusi
