摘要
为了提高雨水管网的排水的可靠性,将工程结构中的可靠性理论引入雨水管网,在可靠性的基础上利用定量风险分析方法对整个雨水管网进行分析,得出雨水管网的失效概率。首先分析雨水管网内涝失效的功能函数与极限状态函数,研究功能函数中各个随机变量的不确定性;接着提出将一次二阶矩法中的设计验算点法用于评估单个雨水管道内涝失效的可靠性,得出单个雨水管道的内涝失效的可靠指标,进而通过转化得出单个雨水管道的内涝失效概率,整个计算过程在Matlab中实现;最后运用事故树法对整个雨水管网进行定量风险分析,最终得出雨水管网出现内涝失效的概率。算例研究表明,现有的单个雨水管道的可靠性偏低,雨水管网的可靠性也偏低。
This paper attempts to analyze the rainwater pipeline relia-bility from the point of view of their quantitative and qualitative strength in the entire rainwater-draining network so as to provide a scientific basis to their design and manufacturing as well as to the departments of disaster prevention and mitigation planning As is known, in recent years, with the accelerated development of urbanization process, waterlogging has taken place in many cities in various degrees, causing great threat to the safety of people＇ s lives and state properties. Such a situation is caused by a lot of factors with its chief reason being the low reliability of the existing rainwater-draining system. In order to improve the situation, we have done careful analysis on the basis of the reliability theory of engineering and have in turn obtained the failure probability of rainwater-draining network. As to the analysis of the performance function of the pipes and efficiency of the urban rainwater-draining network, our analysis is mainly put on the reliability evaluation of a single rainwater pipe, because the reliability indicator for a single rainwater pipe can easily be worked out. Thus, the entire calculation process has been done in the Matlab. And, last of all, quantitative analysis of the entire rainwater-draining network has been done by means of the Fault Tree Analysis （FFA） method with the waterlogging failure probability of rainwater-draining network worked out satisfactorily. The sample application shows that the reliability indicator of existing a single rainwater pipe is low, and the reliability indicator of the entire rainwater-draining network is also low both in reliability as well as in draining efficiency.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第2期188-192,共5页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAJ16B08
2006BAJ16B03-08)
关键词
防洪工程
内涝失效
可靠性分析
事故树
rainwater pipe network
waterlogging failure
reliability analysis
FTA
