摘要
建立了基于生理学机制的植物个体生长发育系统动力学模型。建模中考虑了ＣＯ２增加及其引起的气候变化的综合作用对植物的重要生理过程，如光合、呼吸等，及生物量季节动态的影响。利用北京地区多年天气资料和开顶式气室ＣＯ２倍增下大豆实验的数据，对模型进行了参数拟合和验证，模拟值与实测值吻合良好。用基于月均气象参数的统计性天气模型来驱动个体动力学模型，进一步通过模拟总光合量、单位干重的暗呼吸速率及其分量（生长呼吸速率和维持呼吸速率）等生理指标探讨了生物量对ＣＯ２浓度及其引起的气候变化响应的内在机制。最后进行了大豆个体总生物量季节动态对ＣＯ２、气温、降水变化响应的敏感度分析。结果表明，在北京地区仅ＣＯ２倍增而气候条件维持现状的情况下可导致大豆总生物量峰值提高７０％，绿色部分提高５６％，其中，全生育期内总净光合量增加，而单位干重的暗呼吸速率下降；降水增加使得生物量提高，而气温升高导致生物量降低；降水增加的正效应被气温升高所减弱；而气温升高的负效应被降水充沛所增强；ＣＯ２增加的正效应随气温升高而显著，随降水增加而减弱；这主要是因ＣＯ２增加提高了植物个体的水分利用效率，从而使得ＣＯ２的正效应在水分胁迫下更为明显；气温升高的负效应、?
Today research on global change is becoming one of the three vital topics in ecology. Within this field, simulating an individual plant's physiological responses to global change, especially the combined effects of CO 2 enrichment and the climatic change it caused, is a useful model in predicting the changes of either natural vegetation or agricultural crops, in that the physiological basis of the responses are mostly understood and the results of simulation can be checked with experiments at any level or step when needed. Since the scenarios of the global changes often differ with different GCM's, and will change as the GCM's are being improved, even though, the simulation programs can still be used to for new predictions. In this study, based on the physiological mechanisms, a systematic dynamic model of plant individual growth was established, which included a weather generator and a growth module. The combined effects of enriched CO 2 and climatic change on the main physiological processes, such as photosynthesis, respiration, etc., and seasonal dynamics of biomass were considered in the model. The data sets of the long term weather records of Beijing Meteorological Station and the observed values of many ecophysiological quantities, obtained in a CO 2 enrichment experiment of soybean, were used to parameterize and to validate the model. The results showed that data obtained from the simulation were quite compatible with those from the observation. When the CO 2 concentration was doubled, the peak values of the total biomass and green biomass were increased approximately by 70% and 56% respectively. Furthermore, the responses of the total net assimilation and the average specific dark respiration rate within the growth season explained the internal mechanism of the biomass responses. The result indicated that the total net assimilation increased, while the average specific dark respiration rate decreased. Thus, it can be deduced that the increase of biomass was brought about not only by the increase
