摘要
社会保险是降低居民未来不确定预期,扩大消费的重要手段,是有效发挥扩大内需政策的前提和基础。研究我国社会保险支出与居民消费关系,有助于认识社会保险对城镇居民消费影响的特点,对于如何通过社会保险体系的完善促进城镇居民消费有着重要的意义。实证研究表明,社会保险支出与城镇居民收入、消费存在着长期均衡的协整关系。社会保险支出对消费增长长期看有正向促进作用,但短期内有抑制作用,且社会保险支出影响消费有时滞。
Social insurance system is considered as an important means to reduce urban residents＇ feeling of uncer- tainty to the future and expand their consumption. This paper analyzes the effect of social insurance expenditure on the consumption of urban residents ; it helps to understand the linkages between these two elements, so that domestic demand can be expended through the perfection of the social insurance system. The empirical studies have shown that there is a long-term integration relationship among social insurance expenditure, unban residents＇ disposable income and urban residents＇ consumption. Social insurance expenditure has a positive effect on consumption in the long run;however, it would suppress related consumptions in the short term, and there is a time lag for its impacts on consumption.
出处
《保险研究》
北大核心
2010年第1期13-19,共7页
Insurance Studies
基金
西南财经大学"211"三期重点学科建设项目<中国特色社会主义市场经济基础理论创新>的资助
关键词
社会保险支出
城镇居民消费
VEC模型
social insurance expenditure
consumption of urban residents
VEC model
