摘要
基于模糊理论,根据导弹研制过程分析导弹研制阶段失败的原因,建立了概率风险评估方法(PRA)模型,采用了层次分析法(AHP)对导弹武器系统研制阶段进行了综合的风险评估,结合实例给出了解决实际问题的方法,此评判法为决策者提供了依据,辅助项目研制人员有重点地对原计划进行修正,最大程度地降低研制的风险。
Based on the fuzzy theory, the PRA model,which analyzes the cause of missile development failure and adopts the AHP method to carry on the risk assessment in the development phase of the missile system,is established. Then the method to solve practical problems is given with an example. It can give a basis for decision-makers and assist program-developers to modify the prior plan if necessary, which can reduce the development risk furthest.
出处
《火力与指挥控制》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期61-64,共4页
Fire Control & Command Control
基金
研究生学位论文创新基金资助项目(DY09204)
