摘要
传统决策逻辑基于明确的目标、详实的分析和清晰的预测,然而现实情境尤其是创业过程目标模糊、情境结构不良、未来不可预测,此时传统的因果逻辑不再适用,而效果逻辑成为合适选择。效果推理以March,Mintzberg,Weick和Simon的理论为基础,指出效果过程是关注局部和强调开发偶然性的近可分解过程,它关注可承受的损失和低代价实验、注重策略联盟而非竞争分析、控制未知未来而非预测它。效果逻辑为决策理论提供了新思路,也为创业实践提供了指引。文章详细阐述了效果推理的概念和内容并对其做了评论。
Traditional decision logic is based on specific destination,detailed analysis and clear prediction.However in practice,particularly in entrepreneurship processes,the condition is often ambiguous,bad-structured and unpredictable.So it often occurs that the traditional decision logic is no longer useful while effectuation is appropriate.Based on March＇s,Mintzberg＇s,Weick＇s and Simon＇s theories,effectuation focuses on localization and emphasizes contingency,and it is a near-decomposability processes which principles include affordable loss and low-venture experiments,strategic alliances rather than competitive analyses,controlling an unpredictable future rather than predicting an uncertain one.Effectuation provides a new approach for decision theory,as well as guidelines for entrepreneurship practice.The article introduces the conception and content of effectuation.Present and future researches are also discussed.
出处
《管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第2期53-58,共6页
Management Review
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70902056
70732001
70702020)
高校博士点专项基金(20060335127)
教育部人文社科规划研究一般项目(09YJCZH087)
2008年度江苏省科技发展计划(软科学研究)项目(BR2008022)
苏州大学"211工程"三期重点项目
关键词
因果推理
效果推理
近可分解性
控制逻辑
causation
effectuation
near-decomposability
logic of control
