摘要
本文构建了状态空间模型和跨省面板数据模型,就不确定性和流动性约束等对我国居民消费行为影响进行比较分析,结果表明:1978年以来,收入的不确定性对城镇居民消费行为的负面影响要大于农村居民;城镇居民面临的流动性约束相对小于农村居民;城镇居民面对利率的替代效应要大于收入效应,而农村居民与之相反。1995年以来,收入和支出的不确定性对我国居民整体消费行为的影响并不显著,但与东中部地区居民消费变动正相关;我国居民消费面临的流动约束整体来看并不严重,但中部地区居民相对而言面临更强的流动性约束。
Based on state space model and cross provincial panel data model, this paper compares and analyzes the impact of uncertainty, liquidity constraints and other factors on Chinese consumer ＇ behavior. The results shows that. （1） Since 1978, negative effects of income uncertainty on consumption behavior is greater in urban area than rural area; urban residents face relatively small liquidity constraints ; and the substitution effect of interest rates on urban residents is greater than the income effect, which is opposite for rural residents; （2） Since 1995, the income and expenditure uncertainty of Chinese residents as whole has little impact on their consumption behavior correlates with that or eastern and central regions; as a whole, liquidity constraints are not serious, but the case in central region is much serious.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第3期81-95,共15页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金"转型期中国居民消费的不确定性及相关政策调控研究"项目(编号:70673047)
教育部人文社会科学研究基金"我国居民消费增长缓慢的内生机理及政策取向研究"项目(编号:07JA790095)资助的阶段性成果
