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基于系统动力学的水资源供需系统模拟分析 被引量:11

Simulation for water supply and demand system based on system dynamics
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摘要 水资源供需系统涉及经济社会、生态环境等诸多方面。对其进行模拟,预测其发展趋势,是进行经济社会发展规划和水资源合理配置的重要基础。在综合考虑水资源需求、水资源供给、非常规水源利用、南水北调供水、城市水价等因素的情况下,利用系统动力学方法(SD)模拟邯郸市2005-2030年水资源供需系统。依据模拟结果,提出了邯郸市解决水资源供需矛盾、优化水资源配置的建议。 The water resources supply and demand system is concerned with economy and society,ecological environment,etc..The simulation and development trend prediction of water resources supply and demand system is important for the planning of economic and social development and rational allocation of water resources.With comprehensive consideration of water demand and supply,utilization of non-conventional water sources,water supply by S-N water diversion,urban water prices,etc,we simulate the water supply and demand system of Handan City in 2005 ~ 2030 by system dynamics.The suggestions for solving the contradictions between supply and demand of water resources,and optimization allocation of water resources are put forward according to simulation results.
出处 《人民长江》 北大核心 2010年第3期38-41,63,共5页 Yangtze River
基金 国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重大项目(2006BAB04A15) 水利部江湖治理与防洪重点实验室开放基金资助项目(R2007-04)
关键词 系统动力学 水资源供需系统 模拟 优化配置 system dynamics water supply and demand system simulation optimization allocation
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