摘要
目前国际上围绕地震预测问题的争论，很大程度上与地震的自组织临界性（ＳＯＣ）模型有关。根据地震的ＳＯＣ模型，地震预测被认为是不可能的。事实上，这是一个误解。这个误解又是关于地震的ＳＯＣ模型的诸多误解中的一个。在地震的ＳＯＣ模型中，地震的能量－频度关系具有重要的地位。考虑地震的能量－频度分布的细致结构，可以发现地震活动具有“ＳＯ而不Ｃ”的特点。而即使地震可以被作为一种自组织临界现象，得出“地震预测不可能”的结论也显得过于仓促和简单化。目前普遍使用的地震的ＳＯＣ模型，主要适用于中长期地震预测的情况。ＳＯＣ模型为地震危险性分析中用过去的有限资料来预测未来地震的方法提供了看上去合理的理论依据。此外，就地震预测而言，地震的ＳＯＣ模型无论是在试图给出ＧｕｔｅｎｂｅｒｇＲｉｃｈｔｅｒ定律的物理解释方面，还是在提醒人们从物理学的角度思考地震预测的可能性方面，无论是在揭示简单的物理模型在理解地震现象中的价值方面，还是在提示人们不要把搜寻前兆信息的目光仅仅局限在一个狭小的范围方面，都是极有启发性的。
Based on the hypothesis that earthquake can be regarded as a self organized critical phenomenon,it is proposed that earthquakes cannot be predicted,which is in fact a misleading,and one of the many misleadings asssociated with this problem. The application of the SOC model to the understanding of the physics of earthquakes is reviewed.The frequency distribution of earthquake energy plays a key role in the SOC model of earthquakes.Considering the detailed distribution of earthquake energy,it may be found that seismicity is characterized by “SO but not C”.Even if earthquake can be regarded as a self organized critical phenomenon,it is still too early to conclude that earthquake prediction is impossible.The SOC models widely used in recent years mainly deal with the behavior of long term seismicity.The self organized criticality provides the methodology of seismic risk analysis with a feasibile physical basis.Furthermore,the SOC model of earthquakes contributes to the study of earthquake prediction in four aspects.Firstly,it tries to understand the scaling law of earthquake energy in the view of the self organization of the lithosphere.Secondly,it questions the possibility of earthquake prediction by examing the physics of earthquakes.Thirdly,it reveals the importance of the toy models in the study of earthquake prediction.At last,it hints seismologists not to limit the scope to search earthquake precursors within the small source region defined in “classical” seismology.
出处
《中国地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第4期9-10,共2页
Earthquake Research in China
