摘要
长期以来,学者们偏重于从中国总体、地区或国别视角考察人民币汇率、FDI与中国贸易收支关系,较少从行业层面上对其展开定性和定量分析。本文从制造业行业视角,采用有界协整检验法和Granger因果检验法对人民币汇率、FDI与中国贸易收支关系进行了深入分析。结果表明:人民币汇率、FDI与贸易收支关系在不同的行业具有不同的表现;在短期内,人民币升值有助于改善高新技术产业贸易收支,而从长期看,则不利于高新技术产业的出口;无论在短期还是长期,FDI增加均有助于提升高新技术产业的出口竞争力,改善其贸易收支。
Based on China's Manufacturing Industry,using bounds test and Granger causality test,this paper investigates the relations between RMB exchange rate,FDI and China's trade balance from 1984 to 2007.Empirical test shows that these relations are complicated in China's Manufacturing Industry.In the short run,RMB appreciation would improve trade balance in hi-tech industries as a whole.but in the long run,RMB appreciation would deteriorate trade balance in hi-tech industries.FDI would improve competitive advantage and trade balance in hi-tech industries both in the short run and in the long run.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第1期3-9,共7页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(08AJY004)"外贸顺差问题研究"的资助
