摘要
以长三角16市1978-2007年改革开放30 a人均GDP数据为资料,基于马尔可夫链和空间自相关分析,研究了长三角区域经济趋同与分异过程的时空演变特征.通过构建市域人均GDP类型的马尔可夫转移概率矩阵,得出长三角地区在经济发展中存在明显的"俱乐部趋同"现象,表现为向中低收入组和高收入组趋同;用空间自相关性方法考察各市域与周围邻居城市的空间关系,结果表明区域与其邻居之间存在正相关;据此提出统筹区域发展策略、健全区域互动机制以促进长三角区域经济向高收入趋同的建议.
Based on the Markov chain and the spatial autocorrelation analysis, it was investigated the spatiotemporal evolution characters of regional disparities of the Yangtze River Delta by analyzing per capita GDP data of 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta during 1978 -2007. By constructing the type of per capita GDP of the Markov transition probability matrix at the city level, it was concluded that the Yangtze River Delta areas existed obvious ＂ club convergence＂ phenomenon in economic development, which trended toward low and middle income group and high-income group; By spatial autocorrelation analysis to investigate the spatial relationships between cities and their surrounding neighbors, it was found that regions and its neighbors had a positive relevance, and based on these recommendations, it was put forward for co-ordination of regional development strategies and strengthen the regional interactive mechanism so as to promote regional economy of the Yangtze River Delta to trend toward high-income convergence club.
出处
《浙江师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2010年第1期106-111,共6页
Journal of Zhejiang Normal University:Natural Sciences
关键词
长三角区域经济
俱乐部趋同
马尔可夫链
空间自相关
regional ecnomic in the Yangtze River Delta
club convergence
Markov chain
spatial autocorrelation
