摘要
依据陕西省生态农业干旱相似区，将陕西省干旱预测预警划分为8个分区；利用中期或延伸期天气预报、土壤相对湿度观测值、地面植被等信息，分别建立了综合气象和综合农业干旱预测模型，开发了陕西省干旱预测预警系统平台，可逐日对全省97个气象站点未来的干旱演变进行滚动预测，在此基础上结合干旱预警条件分析及等级判识，进一步判断是否发布以及如何发布干旱预警信息。与实际出现的旱情相比，2007年的干旱预测准确率达88％～96％。
Based on the ecological and agricultural drou ly warning in Shaanxi province were divided. By using soil relative humidity observations, ground vegetation, simil info inte ar regions, 8 sub-areas for drought forecasting and ear rmation of medium term or extended weather forecast, grated meteorological model and the integrated agricultural model for drought forecasting were set up and a drought forecasting and early warning system platform was developed. The daily drought evolution of the 97 meteorological stations in Shaanxi province could then be rolling forecasted. Whether and how to release drought early warning information could be determined based on these records, the analysis of drought early warning conditions and identified grades. The accuracy rate of drought prediction in 2007 was 88% to 96% as compared to the actual situation.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2010年第1期115-120,共6页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40571111)
陕西省气象局基金项目(2009M-26)
关键词
干旱预测
综合气象干旱预测模型
综合农业干旱预测模型
干旱预警
陕西
Drought forecasting
Integrated meteorological model of drought forecasting
Integrated agricultural modelof drought forecasting
Drought early warning
Shaanxi
