摘要
北极航线问题因为北冰洋的融化预期加快,而变得愈来愈重要。中国在这一问题上不能失去话语权,要争得北极航线问题国际机制上的主动权。针对在处理北极航线问题中遇到的复杂和异常的现象,提出利用管理技术中进行定性分析的KJ法和ISM法以及可拓层次分析法(Extension AHP)相结合的方法进行问题诊断,理清了决定北极航线问题的主要因素。可拓层次分析法是基于可拓集合理论,研究当相对重要性程度不确定时如何构造AHP判断矩阵的方法。在进行实际分析的基础上,进而讨论了3种方法相结合的优点及应用的局限。研究结果可以帮助了解北极航线问题现状,发现新问题,提出切实可行的方案并帮助实施。
Arctic route issue is becoming more and more important because of accelerate melting of the Arctic Ocean. On this issue, China can not afford to lose the right to speak, it is necessary to win the initiative of the mechanism on the International Arctic route. With regard to complicated and abnormal issues in the Arctic route, this paper brings forward the approach of combining KJ method and ISM method with EAHP to make diagnosis and analysis the Arctic route issue. And then the main factor of arctic route issue is been cleared. The Extension AHP method of constructing the extension interval number judgment matrix has been researched, considering the consistency of the matrix. In the end, this paper discusses the advantages and limitations in the application of such combination. They can help us understand current situation and put forward feasible plan in the Arctic route issue.
出处
《水运工程》
北大核心
2009年第12期124-130,共7页
Port & Waterway Engineering
基金
国家社科基金项目(08BGJ007)
