摘要
未来100年气候变暖的速度将会逐渐加快,势必会引起农业生态环境、生产布局和结构的变化,进而影响国家的粮食生产及粮食安全,因此开展气候变化背景下农业的气候脆弱性研究是气候变化脆弱性研究的重要课题和内容。在阐明农业气候脆弱性概念的基础上,综述了近年来国内外气候变化对农业的影响及其脆弱性研究评价的现状、方法,归纳和介绍了脆弱性研究和评价的4种主要方法,即统计分析法、指标体系法、模型模拟法和综合评估法,从研究方法、研究内容、研究工具、研究对象和研究过程等5方面进行了展望,指出了该领域研究的不足以及今后的发展方向。
As global wanning becoming more and more fast, which will inevitably result to the change of agro-ecological environment and allocation and structure of production. Further more, country＇ s food production and food safety will also be impacted greatly. Assessment of agriculture vulnerability to climate change is imperative as the rate of global climate change is increasing substantially. The agriculture＇s climate vulnerability assessment is to identify how agriculture systems respond to climate change, which agriculture systems are most at risk, and above which climate threshold agriculture systems degradation will occur. Because of the complexities of climate and agriculture systems processes and uncertainties in climate change, it is difficult to quantitatively describe and predict agriculture vulnerability to climate change. In this paper, we reviewed results of the major studies on agriculture vulnerability to climate change in recent decade, and found that many agricuhure systems, especially natural agriculture systems, would become more vulnerable to the predicted future climate change. We also give a synthetic analysis of methodologies used in vulnerability assessment, and introduced the three major methods that are commonly used： statistical analysis technique, model simulation, index system, and comprehensive evaluation. Finally, we pointed out the deficiencies of the research and discussed the development direction of agriculture vulnerability to climate change in content, methods, technique, objects, process in the future.
出处
《农业环境科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第12期2445-2452,共8页
Journal of Agro-Environment Science
基金
国家软科学研究计划面上项目(2009GXS5B091)
关键词
农业
气候变化
脆弱性
agriculture
climate change
vulnerability
