摘要
本文通过对此次美国次贷危机形成的成因进行分析,引出可以从收入结构的角度来分析收入结构的变化与经济波动之间的关系。文章首先利用美国的年度数据分析了大萧条期间居民收入结构的变化与经济波动之间的关系。在此基础上,本文研究了美国1929—2008年居民收入结构的变化趋势与此次经济危机之间的关系,并提出财产性收入会影响经济波动的理由。然后运用AR(3)-GARCH(1,1)模型拟合美国二战以来的真实GDP的波动情况,建立GDP波动、财产性收入占总收入比重的VAR模型,通过格兰杰因果关系检验得出财产性收入占比能显著单向影响经济稳定性的结论。最后,通过对中国居民收入结构变化趋势的分析,提出在"创造条件让更多群众拥有财产性收入"的基础上,应当控制财产性收入的过分膨胀以优化收入结构,促进经济稳定增长。
Through the analysis on the causes of the U.S. subprime loan crisis, this article analyzes the relationship between the changes in income structure and economic fluctuation from the perspective of income structure. We start with the U. S. annual data to analyze the relationship between the changes in resident income structure and economic fluctuation during the Great Depression. Then, we study the relationship between the trend of the changes in resident income structure from 1929 to 2008 and the present economic crisis, and give the reasons why property income influences economic fluctuation. We employ AR（3） - GARCH （1, 1） Model to simulate American real GDP fluctuation since World War II, set up VAR Model with GDP fluctuation and the proportion of property income to total income, and through Granger Causality, we draw the conclusion that the proportion of property income can influence economic stability in an obvious unilateral way. Finally, through the analysis on the trend of the changes in Chinese resident income structure, we propose that on the basis of creating conditions for more people to own property income , China should refrain property income from over-expansion in order to optimize income structure and promote stable economic growth.
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第12期61-69,共9页
Economist
基金
国家自然科学基金:"基于福利标准的人民币汇率制度选择研究"(项目批准号:70673033)
教育部哲学社会科学创新基地"南京大学经济转型和发展研究中心"子课题"经济转型理论与经济运行机制研究"项目的资助
关键词
金融危机
收入结构
财产性收入
经济波动
The financial crisis
Income structure
Property income
Economic fluctuation
