摘要
构建和监测货币状况指数是将汇率纳入货币政策框架中的一种可行方式。文章在系统分析汇率和货币供应量等变量对国内消费者价格水平的价格传递链条的基础上,运用VAR方法来构建了2005年7月人民币汇率制度改革以来的中国名义货币状况指数。研究表明,M1和名义有效汇率在名义MCI中的权重之比为11.17,在此基础上构建的名义MCI与消费价格指数走势是高度吻合的。从货币政策立场指示器和对通货膨胀进行监测的角度看,我国央行应关注并定期发布货币状况指数。
The construction and monitoring of monetary conditions index is a feasible way to introduce exchange rate into the framework of monetary policy. On the basis of the systematic analysis of the price pass-through effect of exchange rate and money supply on domestic consumer price index, the paper constructs China＇ s nominal monetary conditions index since the reform of exchange rate regime in July, 2005. The results show that the weight ratio of M1 to nominal effective exchange rate in nominal MCI is 1：1.17, and on this basis, the nominal MCI coincides with the trend of CPI. From the angles of the indicator of monetary policy stance and the inflation monitoring, the central bank of China should pay attention to the monetary conditions index and regularly promulgate it.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第12期107-117,共11页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70673033)
教育部哲学社会科学创新基地"南京大学经济转型和发展研究中心"子课题"经济转型理论与经济运行机制研究"项目的阶段性研究成果
关键词
货币状况指数
货币政策立场指示器
价格传递
monetary conditions index
indicator of monetary policy stance
price pass-through
