摘要
分析气候变化对动物分布影响，对气候变化下保护生物多样性具有重要意义。文章利用CART（classification and regression tree），分类和回归树模型，采用A1、A2、B1和B2气候变化情景，模拟分析了气候变化对大熊猫分布范围及空间格局的影响。结果显示：气候变化下，大熊猫目前适宜分布范围将缩小，新适宜和总适宜分布范围在1991～2020年时段较大，从1991～2020年到2081～2100年时段呈现缩小趋势，其中A1情景下变化最大，B1情景下最小。气候变化下，大熊猫目前适宜分布区的东部、东北和南部一些适宜范围将不再适宜，新适宜分布区将主要向目前适宜分布区西部一些区域扩展，并且适宜分布区破碎化，在2051～2080年时段程度最高。另外，气候变化下，大熊猫目前适宜、新适宜和总适宜分布区范围与我国年均气温和年降水量变化呈负相关性。多元回归分析表明，大熊猫目前适宜、新适宜和总适宜分布范围随我国年均气温和年降水量增加而减少，其中气温变化影响比降水量变化影响要大。结果说明，气候变化后，近期将使大熊猫目前适宜分布范围减小，新适宜分布范围增加，随气候变化程度增加，新适宜和总适宜分布范围又将减小。
Understanding the effects of climate change on species distribution is crucial for the conservation of biodiversity under the climate change. The effects of climate change on distribution of giant panda （Ailuropoda Melanoleuca） in China was analyzed using the CART （classification and regression tree） model and climate change scenarios of A1, A2, B1 and B2. Results showed that climate change will cause a decrease in current distribution of giant panda. And new distribution or total distribution region of the animal were both the biggest in 1991-2020 among periods of 1991-2020, 2021-2050, 2051-2080 and 2081-2100, then they would decrease from periods of 1991-2020 to periods of 2081-2100, and they were the highest in A1 scenario and the lowest in B1 Scenario. Additionally, following climate change, the east, northeast and south of current distribution regions of giant panda would reduce, while new regions would mainly expand towards the west of current distribution region of the animal. And distribution regions of giant panda would be fragmented following climate change, and it was highest in period of 2051-2080. Additionally, following climate change, the current distribution region, new distribution region or total distribution region of giant panda was negative correlation with changing in annual mean air temperature and precipitation, and the current distribution, new distribution or total distribution region of the animal all decreased with increasing the annual mean air temperature and precipitation, and the effects of changing the annual mean air temperature were higher than that of changing annual precipitation. Results indicated that climate change will cause a decrease in the current distribution region and a increase in the expanding distribution region of giant panda in the near future,while climate change will cause a decrease expanding distribution region and total distribution region of giant panda following increasing extent of climate change.
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第12期168-177,共10页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
国家"十一五"科技支撑重大项目专题"西北珍稀濒危生物适应气候变化的关键技术与对策研究"(2007BAC03A02-06)
中国环境科学研究院公益性院所基金重点项目支持
关键词
气候变化
濒危动物
大熊猫
climate change
endangered animal
giant panda
