摘要
近年来随着各国经济的不断融合和金融市场的日趋国际化,宏观经济的短期波动越来越受到各国的重视,季度GDP作为高质量的子年度统计数据具有独特的研究价值,为此各国都在探讨季度GDP的核算方法,以获取更加及时、准确的统计数据。我国近两年经济波动较大,寻找及时、准确的高频数据进行短期经济分析具有重大意义。为此,本文借鉴国际上的Chou-Lin方法对我国季度GDP进行分产业的估算,并将估算结果与官方数据进行比较,发现估算结果与官方数据偏差极小,可以作为高频数据进行经济分析及预测。
In recent years, with the continuing integration of national economies and the international trend of financial markets, governments and scholars pay more attention to the short-term macroeconomic fluctuations around the world. Quarterly GDP, as a subset of high-quality statistical data, is one of the effective indicators reflecting the economic fluctuations. In order to obtain more timely and accurate statistical data, countries are exploring the fast quarterly GDP accounting methods. Due to China＇ s volatile economy in the past two years, it is significant to look for timely and accurate high-frequency data for effective short-term economic analysis. Based on the Chou-Lin indirect accounting methods, we estimate quarterly GDP by industry. Further, we compare the estimation results with the official data and find that the deviation is extremely small. It can be used as high-frequency data for economic analysis and prediction.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第10期25-32,共8页
Statistical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(项目批准号:70873015)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地--中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心重大项目(项目批准号:05jjd910153)
辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持计划(项目批准号:2006R18和2008RC18)
教育部回国人员科研启动金项目(教外司留[2008]890号)的资助
