摘要
全球性金融危机的蔓延和恶化,引起了国际社会对美元主导地位的质疑和拷问。良币取代劣币居于主导地位是历史的必然。通过面板协整分析方法检验欧元对美元竞争与替代关系,结果发现,汇率波动对美元在全球外汇储备中的比例影响并不显著,对欧元的影响较大。美元在全球外汇储备中的比例主要受金融市场发育程度影响。预测结果显示,在经济环境没有很大变化的情况下,大约二十年后欧元将取代美元的国际领导地位。
The global financial crisis＇s overspreading and deteriorating caused the international community oppugning the U.S. dollar＇s international status. Good currency drives out bad one to get dominant status is the historical principle. Through co-integration analysis based on panel data to estimate the competition and substitution relationship between euro and dollar, it is found that exchange rate volatility didn＇t influence the proposition of dollar as international reserves remarkably, but in different ease to the euro. The financial markets development influences the dollar＇s status remarkably. Suppose the economic environment does not have great changes, it will take the euro about 20 years to surpass the dollar as leading international reserve currency.
出处
《广东金融学院学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第5期5-17,共13页
Journal of Guangdong University of Finance
关键词
货币竞争
储备货币
美元
欧元
currency competition
reserve currency
U.S. dollar
euro
