摘要
韩美FTA(自由贸易区)在促进韩美两国贸易合作与经济融合的同时,将会对中国对外贸易产生一定程度的负面影响。本文在考察了韩美FTA内容与结构的基础上,分析了中、韩两国出口产品在美国市场上的贸易竞争指数与中美出口产品在韩国市场上的竞争状况。同时运用GTAP(全球贸易分析系统)模拟了韩美FTA对中国福利与中国进出口、贸易平衡、贸易条件等多个指标的影响。模拟结果显示:韩美FTA将有可能降低中国的福利,扩大中国对外贸易逆差并恶化中国的贸易条件。但是从产业层面上来看,韩美FTA对中国各产业贸易的影响存在较大差异。
Korea-US FTA would have a negative impact on China foreign trade while the FTA improves bilateral trade cooperation and economic integration between South Korea and USA. Based on the content and structure of Korea-US FTA, this paper analyzes both the ESI （Export Similarity Index） of China and Korea＇s exports in American market and the ESI of China and America＇s exports in Korean market. Then with GTAP system, this paper explores the Korea-US FTA＇s effects on China GDP, export, import, trade balance and terms of trade. GTAP simulation results imply that due to the Korea-US FTA, China would suffer increased trade deficit and deteriorated terms of trade with reduced welfare. However, the effects on trade balance, export and import at sector level are quite different.
