摘要
洪灾脆弱度评价是把洪水灾害与风险研究紧密联系起来的重要桥梁。沿海城市地位的重要性和面临自然灾害的高脆弱性,使沿海城市自然灾害研究受到世界各国政府的普遍关注。与国外相比较,国内对沿海城市系统洪灾脆弱度研究较少。为了进行准确的洪水灾害风险评价,从而更好地制定城市防洪减灾的对策和措施,城市系统的洪灾脆弱度研究就显得十分重要。本文基于复合生态系统理论,从系统的角度出发,分别构建了上海城市系统洪灾自然子系统、社会子系统和经济子系统脆弱度评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法和熵值法结合确定指标的组合权重,兼顾主客观赋权优点,提高评价结果的科学合理性。最后对上海城市系统洪灾脆弱度进行模糊综合评价,评价结果与实际情况基本相符。本文研究结果可为上海市沿海地区土地利用规划和社会经济发展规划提供参考依据。
The assessment of vulnerubility degree to flood disaster is an important bridge across flood disaster and risk. With the sigruificance and high vulnerability to natural disaster, coastal cities have been arousing great concern of the governments in respect of natural disasters. Less researches have been conducted in coastal urban system vulnerability degree assessment to flood disaster domestically in comparison with the studies abroad. For the accurate flood disaster risk assessment, the research of urban system vulnerability degree to flood disaster is of great importance. As a result, the reasonable flood disaster alleviation measures could be proposed. From the systematically point of view, this article builds up vulnerability degree assessment indexes system of Shanghai urban system on the basis of compound ecosystem theory to flood disaster from many aspects such as the nature, society, and economic, adopts analytic hierarchy process and information entropy model to constitute weight, gives consideration to objective and subject merits, and improves the rationality of appraising results. Finally, the vulnerability degree of flood disaster estimation was carried out with the aid of the fuzzy, comprehensive assessment. The results of this article could be useful for the city government in land use planning as well as social and economic development planning in Shanghai.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第5期143-147,共5页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:40730526)
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40571006
70703010)资助
关键词
上海
城市系统
洪水灾害
脆弱度评价
Shanghai
urban system
flood disaster
vulnerability degree assessment
