摘要
本文运用我国1953～2007年金融机构现金收支与人均GDP数据,实证分析了建国60年来我国金融机构现金收支对人均GDP的影响。Johansen协整检验表明,我国金融机构现金收支与人均GDP之间存在长期的稳定关系;脉冲响应和方差分解表明,金融机构现金收支总额对人均GDP的冲击都存在时滞但方向相反;与金融机构现金收入总额的作用相比,金融机构现金支出总额对人均GDP的方差贡献率相对较大。该实证结果的政策含义是,在我国运用货币政策调节宏观经济是有效的,但政策的制定需要在对宏观经济形势准确预测的基础上具有一定的前瞻性。在全球金融危机发生后,我国及时推行宽松的货币政策,其政策取向是正确的。
This paper analyzes the impact of the cash revenue and expenditure of financial institutions on per capita GDP based on data between 1953 and 2007. The results indicate that a long-term stability between the cash revenue and expenditure of financial institutions and per capita GDP. Further studies show that while both cash revenue and expenditure may affect the per capita GDP with a time lag, they function in opposite directions. Compared to the total cash revenue, the total cash expenditure makes a relatively big contribution to the variance of per capita GDP. The policy implications of the empirical results are that using nlonetary policy to regulate macro economy is valid in China, but the policy decision should be made in a forward-looking manner on the basis of accurate projections of the macro economy. During the financial crisis, China＇ s timely actions in loosening the monetary policy has proved to be correct.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第10期91-96,共6页
Studies of International Finance
关键词
金融机构现金收支
人均GDP
脉冲相应函数
方差分解
Financial Institutions
Cash Revenue and Expenditure
Per Capita GDP
Impulse Response Function
Variance Decomposition
