摘要
根据环境库兹涅茨曲线(KEC)假设,选取福建省1988-2007年环境与经济的统计数据,定量分析福建省工业污染与城市化水平之间的耦合规律。以工业废水、废气和固体废物作为环境指标,城市化率作为经济指标,应用SPSS和Excel统计软件,分析工业"三废"的排放量与城市化水平之间的相关性。结果表明:工业废水排放量与城市化率的拟合并不符合EKC的倒"U"模型,而是呈现正"U"型,拟合方程为二次函数,相关系数(R2)为0.9451,F检验值为146.33。工业废气排放量与城市化率的拟合呈现"U"型的右侧部分,拟合方程为二次函数,相关系数(R2)为0.9561,F检验值为185.12,即福建省工业废水、工业废气排放量仍处于上升期,尚未达到环境质量趋好的转折点。工业固体废物排放量与城市化率的拟合呈现倒"U"型的右侧部分,KEC转折点已提前实现,且固体废物污染状况逐年明显改善,拟合方程为指数函数,相关系数(R2)为0.7446,F检验值为52.48。结论建议:福建省在加快工业化、城市化的建设进程中,应制定更加有利的环境政策,加大科技投入,优化产业结构,加快其KEC转折点的实现。
This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Fujian Province based on the environmental Kuznets curve （EKC） hypothesis, using the series data of economy and environment from 1988 to 2007. Industrial waste water, waste gas and solid wastes are used as environmental indicators and urbanization rate is used as the economic indi- cator. The relevance between industrial ＂three wastes＂ and urbanization rate have been analyzed by using SPSS and Excel software. The results show that the coupling curve between industrial waste water discharge and urbanization rate does not conform to the typical EKC inverted-U pattern, but takes the pattern of U. The curve-fitting equation belongs to quadratic. The correlative coefficient （R^2） is 0.945 1 and F test value is 146.33. The curve of industrial waste gas is taking the shape of the right part of U pattern. The curve-fitting equation is also quadratic, R^2 is 0.956 1 and F test value is 185.12. That means the amount of the industrial waste water and waste gas are both too large for environment. The two curves have not reach the turning point of EKC. The curve of industrial solid wastes shows the shape of the right part of inverted-U pattern. It has exceeded the turning point and solid wastes pollution has been improved obviously annually. Its curve-fitting equation is exponential function. Re is 0.744 6 and F test value is 52.48. In conclusion, Fujian must further make better environmental policies and improve the industry structure, and increase investment in science and technology fields in order to reach the turning point of EKC as soon as possible in the rapid industrialization and urbanization processes.
出处
《生态环境学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第4期1342-1345,共4页
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
