摘要
利用1978-2007年福建省常规气象资料和主要农业气象灾害数据,采用气候倾向率、突变分析、最大熵谱分析等方法研究近30a来福建省气候变化背景下主要农业气象灾害的演变特征和变化趋势。结果表明:福建省气候存在明显变暖的趋势,气候倾向率为0.381℃·10a-1;在这种气候变化背景下,4种主要农业气象灾害表现出不同的变化趋势,其中旱灾呈减少趋势,洪涝、低温冻害和风雹灾害的灾情呈增加趋势,尤其是风雹灾害,进入20世纪90年代后期(突变点在1998年),灾情明显加重。总体上说,农业气象灾害对福建农业生产的影响呈增加趋势,特别是从20世纪80年代中期开始(突变点在1986年),灾情持续扩大,这种变化势必造成农业生产的风险加大。
According to the historical disaster data and weather data from 1978 to 2007 in Fujian province, variability features and trends of the main agro-meteorological disaster on the background of climate changes were studied by using the methods of climatic inclination rate, M-K methods and maximum entropy spectrum technique in the recent 30 years. The results showed that in last 30 years, the temperature in this region increased remarkably at a climatic tendency of 0.381℃/10 a. At the same time, the main 4 disasters which influenced grain production in Fujian including dry, flood, typhoon and hailstones, low temperature had inverse trends that decreasing trend of dry accompanies increasing trend of the other disasters, especially typhoon disaster had the increasing trend since the last of 1990＇s （abrupt change point of 1998）, the tendency has statistical significance. At last, The paper also pointed out that the influence of agro-meteorological disasters on the crop＇s production show increasing obvious trend due to the climate warming, especially increased sharply since the middle of 1990＇s（abrupt change point of 1986） which should caused the risk of agriculture higher in next years.
出处
《生态环境学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第4期1332-1336,共5页
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
基金
福建省科技厅重点项目(2006Y008)
福建省自然科学基金项目(W0750001)
关键词
气候变化
农业气象灾害
趋势
突变
climate change
agro-meteorological disasters
trend
abrupt change
