摘要
水资源对城市化的约束强度已成为干旱缺水地区城市化健康快速发展的重要调控因子之一,科学模拟分析其未来变化趋势,对干旱缺水地区水资源可持续利用与城市化模式优选具有重要意义。以系统动力学模型和水资源对城市化约束强度的综合测度模型为基础,构建了水资源对城市化约束强度的情景预警模型,并对未来25年河西走廊水资源对城市化的约束强度进行了情景预警分析。结果表明,在城市化高、中、低速三种发展情景下,农业退水速度均是有限的,河西走廊水资源对城市化的约束强度将长期属于强约束向较强约束过渡类型。比较而言,城市化中速发展方案更好地兼顾了水资源系统的保护与城市化系统的发展,可作为有效调控河西走廊水-生态-经济-城市化系统协调发展的优选方案。在此方案下,河西走廊人均GDP以年均7.25%的速度增长,人口城市化水平年均增长约0.67个百分点,城市化系统保持较快发展;但社会经济用水总量每年保持在80×108m3左右,而且生态环境用水占水资源总量的比重略大于50%,生态系统整体退化的趋势能够得以扭转;水资源对城市化的约束强度将由强约束类型变为较强约束类型,总体上不断缓解。
Water resources constraint intensity on urbanization has become one of the important controlling factors for the healthy and rapid development of urbanization in arid and water deficient regions. It is of great significance to simulate and analyze its variation trend, so as to choose the best urbanization mode and promote water resources sustainable utilization. Based on a system dynamic model and an integrated measurement model of water resources constraint intensity on urbanization, a scenario warning model of water resources constraint intensity on urbanization was established, and the variation trends of water resources constraint intensity on urbanization in the Hexi Corridor till 2030 were analyzed. Results show that, under the scenarios of rapid, moderate and slow urbanization, water transferring from agro-system to urban system is limited by economic and technological conditions. Water resources constraint intensity on urbanization will chronically belong to the strong or less strong constraint type. If the growth rate of urbanization is too big or too small, water resources constraint intensity will not be rationally adjusted and water-ecology-economy systems will not realize coordinated development. However, the moderate urbanization plan gives attention to both water protection and socio-economic development, and then it can be considered as the optimal plan, i. e. , in the future 25 years, the annual average growth rate of per capital GDP should reach 7.25%, and the urbanization level should increase by 0. 67% at an annual average growth rate in the Hexi Corridor. Furthermore, the total water consumption for socio-economic development should reserve 80 × 10^8 m^3, and water resources left for eco-environment should be more than 50% of the total water resources. Under this plan, the synthetical index of water resources exploitation and utilization potential in the Hexi Corridor will decline to 0. 491 in 2010 from 0. 507 in 2005, and then increase to 0. 511 in 2030 step by step. Eco-system will stop de
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第9期1509-1519,共11页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-307-02)
中国博士后科学基金面上和特别资助项目
中国科学院王宽诚博士后工作奖励基金项目
关键词
城市化
水资源约束力
水资源约束强度
河西走廊
urbanization
water resources constraint
water resources constraint intensity
Hexi Corridor
