摘要
用地气耦合非定常距平模式对２４个夏季旱涝月个例进行了诊断和预测试验。结果表明，用这种动力与统计外部结合的ＭＯＳ方法进行旱涝预测比较简易可行，并且达到一定的准确率，便于在短期气候预报的业务中推广应用。
In this paper, a nonsteady atmosphere earth surface coupled anomaly model is used to carry out diagnostic and prediction experiments of droughts and floods in summer for 24 monthly cases. The results show that this dynamic and statistical externally combined MOS method is convenient and easy to use for the prediction of droughts and floods and is of certain forecasting accuracy and hence is easily applicable for operational short range climate forecasting. This method is of the potentiality for further developing and improving.
出处
《气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第5期540-550,共11页
Acta Meteorologica Sinica
基金
"长江黄河流域旱涝规律成因与预测"课题
关键词
距平模式
旱涝预测
模式输出统计
旱灾
涝灾
Anomaly model, Droughts and floods prediction,Model output statistics(MOS).
