摘要
[目的]揭示贵阳喀斯特地区夏旱强度指数变化的多尺度时空分布规律,分析夏旱变化的周期特征和突变点,为工农业生产服务。[方法]利用1951～2004年共54 a 8个站6～8月日降水量资料,计算了贵阳喀斯特地区夏旱强度指数。采用Morlet小渡函数,对贵阳喀斯特地区夏旱强度指数时间序列进行了小波分析。[结果]贵阳喀斯特地区夏旱强度指数序列变化具有明显的周期和突变点,夏旱强度指数存在22 a的周期特征;2～3 a的周期震荡也很明显;并且存在着2 a的主周期。[结论]根据主周期进行预测,干旱程度将加重。同时,还分析了夏旱的分布特征、形成的环流形式和物理因子。
[ Objective ] The spatial and temporal distribution rule of the summer drought intensity indexes variation were studied in the Karst Region of Guiyang. The periods and the discontinuity points of the summer drought intensity sequence variations were analyzed and served for industrial and agricultural production well. [ Method] By the daily precipitation data from June to August of 8 stations during 54 years from 1951 to 2004 in the karst region of Guiyang, the indexes of the summer drought intensity were caleulated. The temporal series of of the summer drought intensity indexes were analyzed by Morlet wavelet function. [ Result ] The indexes of the summer drought intensity sequence variations had apparent periods and the discontinuity points ; they had about 2 - 3 and 22 years＇ period character, and major 2 years period. [ Conclu- sion ] The drought degree will get heavier by main period forecast. The summer drought＇ s spatial and temporal feature, circulation forms and physics factors had been studied.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2009年第28期13736-13738,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金(NSFC40765004)
贵州省社会发展攻关项目(黔科合SZ[2008]3019)
关键词
贵阳
喀斯特
夏旱
小波分析
多时间尺度
Guiyang
Karst
Summer drought
Morlet wavelet
Multi-time scale
