摘要
在系统分析新产品研发项目风险要素的基础上,针对新产品研发风险因素的影响关系及所引起的后果得不到确切表示的问题,引入了模糊影响图算法。根据定性分析绘制了一个具体的新产品研发项目风险影响图,然后应用模糊影响图评价算法,计算出该新产品研发项目风险发生可能性的累计概率。结果表明,应用模糊影响图评价新产品研发风险,关键在于确定结点状态与频率之间以及结点之间的模糊关系。
Based on the systematic analysis of the risk factors of new product R＆D, aiming at the interactive relationship of risk factors and the consequences that cann＇t be exactly represented, the fuzzy influence diagram method is applied in the evaluation process. According to qualitative analysis, the influence diagram of a new product R＆D project risk was drawn. Then, the probability of the risk occurrence is calculated through fuzzy influence diagram evaluation algorithm. The conclusion indicates that the key to apply the method is to confirm the fuzzy relations.
出处
《科技与管理》
CSSCI
2009年第5期75-77,81,共4页
Science-Technology and Management
关键词
新产品研发
模糊影响图
风险评估
new product R＆D
fuzzy influence diagram
risk assessment
