摘要
针对恐怖袭击风险控制的问题,提出运用社会网络分析对恐怖袭击风险进行控制的方法。首先根据社会网络与恐怖组织之间的相似性,运用社会网路分析技术对恐怖组织网络进行建模,构建恐怖组织的社会网络原型;然后运用有序集理论,计算抓捕一定数量的恐怖分子后整个恐怖组织被破坏的概率。研究表明,在完全二叉树的恐怖组织网络中,控制恐怖组织一半以上的成员,就可以达到削弱恐怖组织的攻击能力的目的。
This paper is engaged in the study of the terrorist risk contrel in the minimum input way by using social network analysis and the mathematics method order set. In proceeding with our study, first of all, based on the characteristic analysis of the terrorist organization, attempt is made to disclose the similarity between the general social networks and the terrorist organizations, and, then, we have tried to apply the social network analysis technology to the study the model of the terrorist organizations by creating the prototype of terrorist organization network in three steps： firstly, determine the terrorist organization network nodes; secondly, determine the mutual relations among the network nodes; and, thirdly, collect and process the data collected. Of the three steps, the third step is the most complicated one, because most nodes and their mutual relations, the most data needed, as well as the data to be adopted seem often to be incomplete, which is likely to lead to unsuccessful analysis of the whole investigation. Therefore, it is also necessary to prepare a high-quality database, including the timely information of the terrorist activities and the corresponding pages indicating the ever-changing situation of their activities. Secondly, with the terrorist organization network at hand, the terrorist organization can be analyzed quantitatively by using the mathematics method ordered set. In our practice, we have tested the ordered set analysis for the terrorist organization network, trying to find all the lines （great chin） between the leader node and the terminal node so as to destroy it. The set in which the nodes are related to every great chin is professionally known as cutest. The probability can be worked out when the terrorist network was destrayed by arresting some terrorists by using it. In this paper, we have also provided the cut set calculating method of the complete binary tree terrorist network. Thus, it can be concluded that if half or more of the terrorists can be found, the capabi
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第4期164-167,共4页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
"十一五"课题科技支撑计划课题(2006BAK08B01)
863课题(2006AA01Z336)
关键词
安全工程
风险控制
社会网络分析
有序集
恐怖袭击
safety engineering
risk control
social network analysis
the ordered set
counter-terrorist attack
