摘要
分析了许昌烟区1971-2005年4个年代气候因素变化特点,采用隶属度函数模型和指数和法,估算了许昌各县(市)的气候适生性指数(CFI),并对其变化原因进行了分析。结果表明:不同年代各县(市)的CFI均在0.80以上,表明各县(市)均属烤烟生产气候适宜区。从4个年代CFI的均值来看,许昌县>长葛>襄城>禹州>鄢陵;从4个年代CFI变异程度来看,禹州>长葛>襄城>鄢陵>许昌县。各县(市)不同年代的CFI均呈"低—高—高—低"变化趋势;20世纪80年代以来,许昌县、襄城、长葛、禹州的CFI值及变化趋势基本一致,均明显高于鄢陵。80年代至21世纪初鄢陵的气候适生性指数明显低于其他县(市),与伸根期温度相对较低,旺长期和成熟期多雨、高湿有关。
This article analyzes climate factorial change of Xuchang by dividing 1971 --2005 into 4 decades and estimates the climate feasibility indexes （CFI） using membership grade function model and law of exponential sum, and the reasons for these changes are analyzed. The results show that ： the CFI of every county in different decade are above 0.80, indicating the climate of every county is suitable for flue -cured tobacco planting. From mean value of different decade＇ CFI＇ s view, the characteristic is Xuchang county 〉 Changge 〉 Xiangeheng 〉 Yuzhou 〉 Yanling; from variation degree of CFI＇ s view, Yuzhou 〉 Changge 〉 Xiangeheng 〉 Yanling 〉 Xuchang county. CFI of every county is following the trend of ＂low -- high -- high -- low ＂ ; the CFI of Xuchang county, Xiangcheng, Changge and Yuzhou are close to each other and follow the same trend, and are significantly higher than contemporaneous CFI of Yanling after 1980s. Because of relatively lower temperature at root extending stage, more rainfall and higher humidity at vigorous growth period and mature stage, the CFI of Yanling is lower than other counties between 1980s and 2000s.
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2009年第3期43-46,共4页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
关键词
烤烟
气候
适生性指数
变异系数
flue - cured tobacco
climate
feasibility index
variation coefficient
