摘要
针对电网规划和安全评估中对多重线路停运的模式和概率估计不足的问题,提出一类多重线路停运的组合模型。运用故障树法(FTA)分析线路N-K停运机理的基础上,建立一种计及主接线电气联系方式、线路架设方式及继电保护潜故障等因素影响的线路N-K停运概率模型。采用模型验证广西电网部分线路停运概率,结果表明在计及上述因素影响下,线路N-K组合故障发生的概率远高于预期,在电网规划、安全评估及连锁故障初始事件的选择中应充分重视该类组合事件。
A combined approach is presented to deal with underestimation of emergence patterns of multiple transmission-line outage in power network planning and safety assessment. On the basis of analyzing line N-K outage mechanism adopting FTA （fault tree analysis） algorithm, a probability model of line N-K outage is proposed considering the influence of main electrical connection, line-erecting modes and relay-protection. A- flalysis of partial transmission lines in Guangxi grid validates that probability of line N-K outage with the factors mentioned above is far higher, when compared to traditional approach. This type of combined outage should attract our great attentions in power network planning, safety assessment and incipient contingency filtration for cascading failure assessment.
出处
《电力系统及其自动化学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第4期115-119,共5页
Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA
关键词
电网规划
安全分析
组合故障
概率分析
故障筛选
power network planning
safety assessment
multiple transmission-line outage
probability analysis fault filtration
