摘要
本文采用溃变理论的V-4θ图形图像预测法，利用2004年～2007年的5、6月资料作为统计样本，得出大．暴雨与V-4θ图的预报指标，同时依托省台MM5业务系统形成全省九地市未来0～48小时有大～暴雨的客观预报产品。应用表明，在福建省前汛期强降水预报中具有较好的参考使用价值。
Studying the V-4θ diagram from the breaking-up-evolving theory, a relation between heavy storms with the V-4θ diagrams is summarized by the sounding data of May and June from 2004 to 2007.The objective forecast product of heavy storm of the nine zones is established in the future of 48 hours by using the MM5 output. It is capable of the forecast of heavy storm during prerainy season in Fujian by the operation.
