摘要
结合新疆北疆地区春季融雪洪水的特点以及当地的经济、社会现状,将影响新疆春季融雪洪水灾害大小的主要因素划分为自然、经济、人口、防洪设施贡献四大类因子,对这四大类因子进一步细化,经过量化处理成为相应的指数,综合各类指数,构建出度量融雪洪水灾害大小的预警指数模型。采用呼图壁县军塘湖流域历史洪水灾害资料对该预警指数模型进行验证,得到较好的效果。通过对导致预警产生偏差的影响因素进行分析表明,由于经济因子指数的估计受主观影响较强,该模型无法验证北疆地区所有情况。随着监测的不断深入,并与积雪遥感监测相结合可以进一步提高模型的预测精度。总之,该预警模型的建立有助于新疆春季积雪的监测和评估,可以有效减少春季洪水损失,保护当地人民生命财产安全,为融雪洪水的预警提供决策依据,具有显著的社会效益和经济效益。
There is a long time for snowing in the north part of Xinjiang in winter. And the more abundant snow makes snowmelt floods pros and cons of both, which can threat the national economy and people＇s lives and property, and also can be advantageous to solve the prevailing drought in Xinjiang in spring. As long as timely prevention to divert properly, we can seek advantages and avoid disadvantages. Therefore, based on monitoring and evaluation of the spring snow in Xinjiang, it can be effective to reduce the spring flood losses and protect local people＇s lives and property safety on the bass of establishing the early warning model and grading standards fit for the actual local conditions. This paper analyses many studies of most domestic scholars on early-warning flood. Combined with the analysis of the features of snowmeh floods in spring in the North of Xinjiang and the local economic and social actuality, it is found that there are four factors affecting spring snowmeh flooding size, such as nature, economy, population and contribution of flood control facilities. Then, the four factors have been further classified and combined to form into early-warning index, which can determine the possibility of snowmelt flood. Analysis of influence factors on early-warning model shows that because the economic factors are influenced by subjectivity, this model can not be applied to various conditions in north Xinjiang. With further continuous observation and snow remote sensing monitoring, the precision of forecast should be improved. In all, the early-warning model has been proved efficiently b uate ing. y historical flood in the Juntanghu River basin of north Xinjiang. On one hand, this model can survey and evalfatalness of snowmeh flood. On the other hand, it is expected to be one of evidences in decisio In a word, the establishment of the early-warning model can be the base for decision-making n-making warnof the snowmelt flood early warning, with significant social and economic benefits.
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第4期552-557,共6页
Arid Land Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目("3S"技术支持下的融雪洪水预警决策支持系统研究70361001)
关键词
北疆
融雪洪水
预警指数模型
North of Xinjiang
snowmelt flood
early-warning model
