摘要
本文选用美国和墨西哥1981-2007年间按SITC一位数商品分类的双边贸易数据,修正了Magee(2004)的进口需求方程,运用反事实估计方法和GLS回归方法对美国和墨西哥在CUSTA和NAFTA中贸易流变化进行回归分析,测定并比较两种一体化协定给美国和墨西哥带来的贸易增长效应。结果显示:NAFTA给经济水平较发达的美国带来了进口的大量增长,有利于美国的福利增加,并且这种福利的增加是稳定的,而对墨西哥的贸易增长效应却长期为负值;在不同商品类别中,两种一体化协定的效应不同,其中在一些商品类别中具有负效应且绝对值较大。所以,发展中国家参与南北型经济一体化时应该更多地关注其动态福利效应。
This paper selects the United States and Mexico＇s bilateral trade data between the year of 1981 and 2007 according to SITC-1 goods classification, amends Magee （2004）＇s import demanded equation, and uses the anti-fact estimation methods and GLS regression to analyze the changes of United States and Mexico＇s trade flows in NAFTA and CUSTA, in order to determine and compare the trade growth effects of the two types of integration agreement brought to the United States and Mexico. The empirical results show that： NAFTA has brought a large increase in the imports of the more developed economy-United States, which will help to increase the welfare of the United States. What＇s more, the increase is stable, while the long-term trade growth effect to Mexico is negative. In different commodity categories, the effects of the two integration agreements are quite different, and in some commodity groups the effect is negative and large in absolute terms. Therefore, the developing countries who had taken part in the North-South economic integration should be more concerned about the welfare of its dynamic effect.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第8期45-51,共7页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"发展中国家参与国际经济一体化福利效应的比较研究"(06BGJ016)
教育部基地项目"国际区域一体化比较研究"(05JJD790087)的阶段性成果
